Have a look at the graph below for rainfall in the Murray—Darling Basin. Rather than predicting specific conditions on specific days, they indicate the chances that average weather conditions will be above- or below-average over the coming season.Climate scientists use a complex mix of weather models, historical data, current conditions in the ocean (locations of unusually warm and cool waters and currents), soil moisture content, experience, and expertise to predict which regions are likely to have above- or below-average conditions in the next 3 months.Climatological data (1981 – 2010) provides “normal” ranges for temperature and precipitation: climate outlooks describe the chances that upcoming conditions will be in the top or bottom third of historical observations.Farmers, ranchers, firefighters, and water and natural resource managers commonly consult climate outlooks to anticipate and prepare for potential future conditions.Click links in the selection table to view different maps and data:NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction CenterLand-based station, Marine / Ocean, Model, Severe weather 30 Day Rainfall Departure. Weather News » all stories. It doesn’t mean we don’t know much about footy or about the teams that are about to play – it’s just that there is no strong indication that one team is far better than the other.So what should you look at during neutral periods to get an idea of what’s possible for the upcoming season? But you might not have seen much media coverage of it, because we’re not seeing big swings towards the attention-grabbing There are times when the main drivers of our climate are not strong enough to push us towards a season dominated by unusually wet or dry, or hot or cool, weather. Each location on the map has some chance to experience average temperatures that rank in the bottom, middle, or top of records from the previous three decades. » advanced search. Each location on the map has some chance to experience average temperatures that rank in the bottom, middle, or top of records from the previous three decades. A neutral climate outlook means there is a 50% chance of above-average rainfall. But if times are tough, 50% may not be anywhere near high enough, so you’d make a more conservative decision. Most Warmer than average ocean waters in the Coral Sea and west-central Pacific Ocean are expected to have some influence on New Zealand’s climate in the first half of the three month period. In contrast, the rainfall outlook map for October 2015 (right) shows a low chance of exceeding the median (so brown dominates the map).Society going viral! Alternative text versions with static maps, are also available Colors on the map show experts’ level of confidence in their forecasts for above- or below-average temperatures. Senior climatologist, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Bureau of Meteorology INTERPRETATION: * White colours indicate not enough information/ uncertainty what to forecast. It shows rainfall over 116 years, ordered from lowest to highest. Submitting a location via this search will display the value (for example temperature or rainfall) for the location. The official CPC/IRI outlook is similar to these model forecasts, calling for a 60% chance of La Niña for fall and 55% chance for continuing through winter. the Western Cape areas during summer periods. Weather News » all stories. maps are also preceded with a set of time period buttons. Temperature Precipitation : Three Month Outlook (Interactive) Temperature Precipitation : Week 3-4 Outlooks Temperature Exp. Making a selection If your appetite for risk is high – if you are a farmer with good soil moisture, full dams and lots of money in the bank – 50% may be enough for you to take a punt on a riskier crop. In fact, it’s giving us some key information.Let’s focus on rain. These outlook products are different from weather forecasts. The dark orange areas simply have a higher likelihood for above-average temperatures than the light orange areas do. 1. Please select a district: Site search. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks for exact release dates. Climatologists use historical and current climate and weather data make climate predictions for temperature and precipitation in the future. Please note, as of forecast May 2011, the climatological reference period has been updated from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010. Similarly, dark blue areas are not predicted to be cooler than light blue areas.Keep in mind that outlooks show the most likely condition for each region, not the only possible outcome.Energy companies want to know how much energy people will need in the next three months. » advanced search. Seasonal climate outlook March - May 2020 Figures 1 and 3 (the official ENSO probability forecast and the objective model-based ENSO probability forecast, respectively) are often quite similar. Submitting a Use our The seasonal outlook itself may also be useful. 12-month Rainfall Forecast. The default period is for 3 month outlooks.Both panels start with a level 2 heading, so you can jump between the two headings by pressing the 2 key for 12-month Rainfall Forecast. A La Niña watch is posted. But within that middle 50%, the rainfall in neutral years is fairly evenly spread — it isn’t clustered right in the middle, or dead on average.First, it means that a neutral year will typically bring quite variable rainfall, with periods of rainfall above or below average. Outlooks can also help them choose the best time to schedule maintenance procedures. Below average rainfall set to continue 6 months, 1 week ago Three month outlook: Below average rainfall set to continue Mark Phelps @MarkQCL 1 Nov 2019, 7:49 a.m. * "Dry season"- the period when it usually don't rain- in which precipitation is more rare, eg. RAIN AFRICA- THREE MONTHS .